Southeastern Florida's white-tailed deer are likely to have a harder time with coming environmental change than deer in the middle and north of the state, and the Florida panther still has too little genetic variety to adapt easily, according to research from the University of Central Florida described by the university on Thursday.
The work was done by George Zaragoza, a postdoctoral scholar in UCF's College of Sciences who earned his doctorate at UCF in 2026 in integrative conservation biology.
He paired genetic data from the two species with models that project where suitable habitat will be in coming decades, an approach meant to show which populations face the biggest shifts and whether they have the genetic range to cope.
Deer: a north-south pattern
The study found vulnerability rising from north to south. Projections show South Florida, including the greater Everglades, turning drier in the coming 50 to 100 years, which Zaragoza said could reduce the plants deer depend on when water runs low, while high water can cut deer off from low ground. Central and northern Florida herds are projected to see similar but milder changes, UCF said.
The genetic analysis also pointed to genes tied to daily and seasonal timing, metabolism and immune response. Zaragoza said those could shed light on how Florida deer handle heat, store energy and breed on a different schedule than deer farther north.
