The Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has remained notably quiet, with no hurricanes forming in the ocean despite the development of several tropical storms. That is unusual. The National Hurricane Center's records show the first hurricane usually forms by early to mid-August.
Allison Wing, an associate professor in Florida State University's Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science department, says the strong El Niño pattern now in place is a major contributor to the quiet season. Wing, who specializes in atmospheric dynamics and tropical cyclones, explained that El Niño generates increased vertical wind shear.
This phenomenon involves variations in wind velocity and direction across altitude levels, creating unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
“Vertical wind shear is bad for hurricanes,” Wing said. “It makes it harder for them to form, harder for them to intensify.”
El Niño is one phase of a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, in which ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions swing back and forth. These changes influence global rainfall and cloud development, thereby affecting atmospheric circulation. While ENSO is a significant driver of hurricane activity, it is not the sole determinant. Other atmospheric and oceanic factors also play a role, making seasonal forecasting a complex challenge for scientists.
La Niña conditions, the cooler counterpart to El Niño, existed from late 2025 through the beginning of 2026, prior to the emergence of the present El Niño pattern.
