Forecasters now give this El Niño a 60% chance of becoming the strongest on record, with a wet, stormy Florida winter the usual result

The El Niño taking shape in the Pacific is on track to rival or top the biggest events of the past 75 years, federal forecasters said Thursday, and Florida tends to feel strong El Niños as wetter, stormier winters.

In its monthly update issued Nov. 12, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño advisory in place and said the event continues to strengthen. The agency puts better than a 79% chance on a strong to very strong El Niño lasting through the January-to-March period.

How strong it is getting

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have run more than 4 degrees Celsius above normal in places, according to the discussion. The key Niño-3.4 index, the area forecasters watch most closely, reached 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, with even larger readings closer to South America.

Forecasters now put the chance of a historic event, one exceeding every El Niño in records back to 1950, at about 60% for the October-December and November-January periods. Their outlook calls for El Niño to keep building before it begins to weaken early in 2027.

The agency added a caution: even a very strong El Niño raises the odds of its typical effects but does not guarantee them.

What it has meant for Florida

WKMG News 6 meteorologist Jonathan Kegges wrote Thursday that this event is in the "very strong" category, the top of the scale, and that predictions would have it surpassing the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 events.

He noted that very strong El Niños have historically raised the potential for heavy rain and severe weather in Florida, including tornadoes, though no two events play out the same way.

Kegges also pointed to a possible effect on next year's hurricane season. El Niño tends to hold down Atlantic hurricane activity, and he wrote that it is expected to fade quickly by late spring or early summer of 2027.

The Climate Prediction Center updates its El Niño discussion monthly; the next is scheduled for December. Its seasonal temperature and rainfall outlooks, which translate the pattern into regional odds, are posted on the agency's website.

Sources

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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