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Data model ranks which Seminole County land to protect for flood control, wildlife and trails; findings go to commissioners today

Stetson University and the regional planning council say meeting every goal set by the county, its cities and other partners would mean conserving about 34% to 37% of Seminole County's land area.

Yara Goddard

October 13, 20262 min read

Conservation Planning - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Seminole County commissioners will hear this morning how a computer model built with input from Winter Springs and the county's other cities ranks land for future conservation, flood protection and trail building.

The presentation on the county's Marxan conservation strategy is on the regular agenda of the Board of County Commissioners meeting that begins at 9:30 a.m. in the BCC Chambers. It is a briefing, with no vote listed.

Jason Evans, executive director of Stetson University's Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience, and Jenifer Rupert, regional resilience officer for the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, are listed as presenters along with county Public Works Director Tawny Olore.

What the model does

Marxan is a decision-support tool for conservation planning that The Nature Conservancy now maintains, according to the presentation posted with the agenda. It layers many data sets in a geographic information system to weigh landscape connectivity, purchase costs and side benefits against each other, then suggests which parcels best meet a set of goals.

For Seminole County, the inputs included existing conservation lands, the Florida Natural Areas Inventory's Florida Forever needs assessment, the property appraiser's latest just-value figures, the county's drainage basin studies and stormwater system, existing and planned trails, and areas that flooded in past storms.

The project was funded by a state Resilient Florida planning grant from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, split 50/50 with the county. Stakeholder workshops were held in March, April and November 2025; county GIS staff were trained on the tool in March 2026, and the final report was delivered May 29.

The City of Winter Springs is listed among the stakeholders, along with Altamonte Springs, Casselberry, Lake Mary, Longwood, Oviedo and Sanford, the St. Johns River Water Management District, the Florida Department of Transportation, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and groups including Friends of Wekiva, the Audubon Society, the Sierra Club and St. Johns Riverkeeper.

The findings

The models were run several ways, each favoring a different priority: habitat, low purchase cost, maximum conservation, drainage connections, trail connections and flood mitigation.

Across those runs, protecting enough land to satisfy every stakeholder goal would take between 33.8% and 37% of the county's total land area, the presentation says. The bulk of that land lies in the county's rural east, though the models repeatedly singled out some smaller parcels in more built-up areas.

The county now holds parcel-level data that staff can use for custom assessments not visible on the report's maps, according to the slides. The researchers plan to help county staff update the model and to take it next to the Seminole Forever Acquisition and Restoration Committee.

The presenters say the planning council won a 2026 Aliceann Wohlbruck Impact Award from the National Association of Development Organizations for the project.

Sources

seminolecountyfl.legistar1.com

seminolecountyfl.legistar1.com

webapi.legistar.com

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Yara Goddard

Yara Goddard covers Winter Springs city hall, the council, and county government.

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